Russia was a party to the proposed production cuts; meanwhile, Iran will reportedly be exempt from the production cut requirements.
These are current levels, and may not be applicable in six months. When I discuss levels like these, I am looking at the next days. Some reader emails have brought this up, hence the FYI. As some may know, the version has been published, and it is packed full of benefits information. I personally have great passion about the financial markets and watching the stock indexes, however my attention span tends to quickly drop off when the topics are annuities, life insurance, survivor benefits.
Dan is the answer and explains things is awesome detail, and does so with fluency unmatched anyway else. These articles discuss the economy in general and common FERS topics, they are excellent and I learned something new from reading them.
A screenshot is below:. Sign up is here: Comments Off on Markets continue into the Red. I have had quite a few emails and LinkedIn Messages asking for my opinion on the markets. I simply cannot answer all of them, this is the very reason this site was launched years ago: So with that said, allow me to share my views.
To be fair, the final vote is always Mr. Market, and for now , the markets, reflected by the futures markets, like it, they are up over points for Dow Jones Futures:. In support of that question, I offer the following about the G summit:.
Tariffs have not been eliminated as many originally desired. Is the problem solved? The can has been kicked down the road , for days. His statements in this social setting were somewhat differently toned that what we see in sworn testimony in front of Congress, or in official press releases.
Powell basically said what we already know, a close reading of the statement will reveal that. Furthermore, he even stated that rates are at historical lows. Guess what direction they will be headed? So the data supports continued rate hikes. Moving forward, additional preliminary indicators exist that the housing market continues to cool which happens when mortgage rates increase. The National Association of Home Builders recent survey reflects optimism is at the lowest point for all of Housing is a very reliable leading indicator regarding recessions ahead.
The SP Index, my preferred barometer of things, does not reflect a cross yet, but it is approaching:. As my disclaimer says, what you do with your TSP is your business.
I still am not comfortable with the climate to wander outside and go back into stock funds, based on the above observations and opinions. On more than one occasion, I had to use a soft voice and soothe some skeptics, who believed stocks were going to triple the next day. The purported rally was viewed with suspicion by me, due to its lack of volume. It appears my crystal ball was accurate: Using closing data, the Dow Jones index is points lower today compared to the Nov-7 close.
October was brutal, however a look at the chart will reflect that last Month performance had the best gains in the S-Fund and C-Fund , two funds out of ten choices, that I have personally been in myself almost all year. As such, in my opinion this downtrend is a new situation and possibly reflects a looming Bear market ahead.
I mentioned in my Oct post that:. I still hold that belief, especially if agreement with China does not occur at the G Summit, which begins Nov 17 days away. My crystal ball anticipates additional turbulence in the months ahead. Lets take a look at a chart of the SP The index is back below its Day Moving Average, a negative indication. As most know, Nov-6 was the date of the Midterm Elections unless you voted early.
I have said in prior posts that the midterm elections is one of many trigger events causing stock market angst. My opinion is any power shift in Congress could potentially derail Pro-business efforts and pro-business tax policy. I will not expand further but safe to say I believe the midterms are a point of concern for the markets.
Expect attempts to slow down rate hikes to be met with resistance by the new Chair. It is not known who is getting fired, subpoenaed, or what new investigations will be opened and on whom regarding the shift in Congress.
Expect continued discussion of sanctions and tariffs against a variety of countries. Lets take a look at what has happened in recent days. To overcome prior sell-offs which occurred in October, the markets will need much more powerful volume. Anything below would likely be embraced by the markets. Additionally, the FOMC will release an announcement on Nov-8 regarding current and future monetary policy.
I view the recent action with suspicion, due to the lack of volume. Numerous threats still exist in the landscape, notably a political power shift, interest rate hikes, and threats of tariffs and sanctions. Comments Off on Markets try to rebound but volume Weak. Thankfully, October is now behind us.
A month that historically is a good month, closed in the red, with the SP having its worst monthly loss in seven years, all in a month that should be up. On a month basis, the only negative fund was the I-Fund. Indeed, the markets rallied. We are in a tug of war, bulls versus bears, and my status in G-Fund means I am watching the boxing ring, but not in the ring. Then it appeared to have possibly reversed this week Oct 29 week.
The buying volume trailed each day. With that said, my opinion is the markets are indeed in a correction and I prefer to be investing in the G-Fund. The TSP site a site with good information says this about folks nearing retirement: The way in which you distribute your money among the TSP funds should reflect your time horizon and your risk tolerance.
The closer you are to retirement, the shorter your time horizon. As a result, your primary focus might shift from growth and accumulation to safety and preservation. Even if your risk tolerance is very high, you may not have time to recover from severe drops in the market if a large portion of your account is allocated to stock funds.
If you determine that you have not saved enough, this is not the time to take on more risk than you have the ability to sustain — the better alternative would be to increase your savings. Comments Off on October finally closes Out. Just a short note, but in my opinion everything on this site is all my opinion.. Had it done so which it did not , I would have a different opinion. Until the SP is able to exceed , a nice round number based off the Oct high of The current backdrop includes a cooling housing sector, some fairly big and arguably well-run corporations missing earnings to include Amazon and Google , and some other flames appearing in the windows, indicating that things may turn to ashes soon.
Long story short, GDP data is coming on Friday October 26 and the market could literally do anything in response. Most estimate that 3. So jobs are the LAST indicator to use if you are trying to anticipate market downturns.
They indeed are good overall, long-term indicators of the economy. If full employment exists, then yes, things are good. Just be careful using unemployment numbers as a bulletproof, error-free, device to forecast the stock market.
Lets talk a little bit about things as I see them:. Apparent in the chart above is the level break, this occurred on high volume, a negative sign. Numerous things are challenging the markets, I will not regurgitate what I have already said, however the below are the challenges ahead:. As reported on this site previously, the housing sector is already cooling off, this has trickle-down impact on the retail sector, construction, commodities, and other areas.
Only a few folks have spoken about this: As such, this story is not a popular one to talk about. But all indications are that housing is cooling off. A technical indicator, the Day and Day moving average, indeed reflects a possible downturn ahead. If the skies clear up in a month or two, I will re-enter stock funds.
I occasionally get asked about such advice and those sites and quite frankly, most of them are garbage. With that said, I am enroute to G-Fund. Will the markets suddenly rally and prove me wrong? Until then, I need a little shelter from the storm clouds I think are forming.
Comments Off on Market turbulence triggers my move to G-Fund. Indeed this month has been a roller-coaster. October, historically a top performer, will likely under-perform this year; that fact alone is a red-flag itself regarding what lies ahead if you believe that kind of stuff- I do….
Lets talk about some of my opinions regarding what is challenging the markets. Back in July 15, I said this about inflation:. Apparent is that inflation has ticked up, however also observe that shortly after it goes up, the data reflects that it goes back down.
Since , it has been contained in a relatively narrow trading range. I did not invent this or otherwise make it up. It is what it is. So I must ask: Why is the FOMC insistent on continued rate hikes? I do not have the answer.
My opinion is they should throttle back on rate hikes and put the rate-hike pistol back into the holster for now. Lets talk about the SP Index, my benchmark barometer for the health of the markets. In recent weeks, the International Monetary Fund IMF cut global growth forecasts citing trade tensions , a Saudi journalist was reportedly hacked to death in the confines of a diplomatic consulate building prompting threats of economic sanctions on Saudi Arabia and the minutes from the September FOMC meeting were released.
One reason I did not pull the ejection handles over to G-Fund panic response was I wanted to assess the scene first. What does a number mean to you? Our Corruption Perceptions Index sends a powerful message and governments have been forced to take notice and act. Behind these numbers is the daily reality for people living in these countries.
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